(RUSSIA)
SCOPE
There have been many reports, and much evidence, that the temperature in the Arctic has in recent decades been increasing dramatically at a rate higher than in other regions of the world. Increases of up to five degC have occurred in the past 50 years.
This Note examines the temperature records at nine long-term stations in Russia. All of the stations are located at latitudes of at least 60degN (the latitude of Saint Petersburg) and have data records of over a century.
Separate Notes have been prepared for other arctic and sub-arctic regions of the world – see Links below.
DATA
The earliest records are at Vytegra and Turuhansk where data have been observed since 1881. The number of complete years of data ranged from 82 years at Kanin Nos to 127 years at Salehard.
All of the data used were downloaded from the website of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI).
Three of the stations (Kanin Nos, Ostrov Dikson and Anadyr) are located at coastal locations.
METHODOLOGY
For each of the nine stations plots were made of the annual mean temperatures and also of the summer and winter mean temperatures. For the purpose of this analysis “summer” was defined as June-August and “winter” as December-February (even though the actual winter season can extend over longer periods).
No trendlines were fitted to the plots as such actions are highly subjective. Instead linear regression lines are shown; these are NOT a trendlines but are added so as to provide a baseline for the viewer. There has been a world-wide overall increase in annual mean temperatures over the past century (and beyond) so this enables the viewer to observe the variation from the mean trend at individual stations.
RESULTS
There are strong similarities in the annual mean temperature trends at most of the stations. Cyclical trends are evident with peaks around the 1930s and 2010s and a trough in the 1960s. Since about 1970 the temperature trend has been increasing at all stations. A somewhat similar increasing trend occurred between about 1900 and 1950, with a consistent decrease in temperature between about 1950 and 1970. An example of this is shown at Viljujsk, with linear regression lines plotted for the two 50-year periods, 1900-1949 and 1970-2019:
It is seen that the period of increasing temperature between 1970 and 2019 is a repeat of a similar increase between 1900 and 1949. This comparison applies to all of the stations except Kanin Nos, Vytegra and Anadyr. So the temperature increase over the period 1970-2019 period is not unique!
The linear regression slopes for the total records, 1900-1949 and 1970-2019 are:
It is seen that, for the full period of records, the linear trend slopes at all stations were similar, ranging from 0.09 degC/decade at Vytegra to 0.18 degC/decade at Turuhansk.
The trends of the Summer and Winter temperatures were similar to the annual trends. The linear trend slope for the summer (Jun-Aug) period varied from 0.01 to 0.15 degC/decade while the linear trend slope for the winter (Dec-Feb) period varied from 0.02 to 0.31 degC/decade,
PLOTS FOR INDIVIDUAL STATIONS
KANIN NOS
[ The record commenced only in 1915. There was very little variation in the temperature trend prior to 2000. ]
VYTEGRA
[ There were much missing data in the 1910s, 1920s and 1930s. ]
SALEHARD
[ The winter temperatures have varied little over the past century. ]
HANTY-MANSIJS
[ There are much missing data, particularly in the 1920s and 1930s. ]
OSTROV DIKSON
[ This record commenced in only 1916. There are much missing data. ]
TURUHANSK
[ There are much missing data, particularly in the 1910s and 1920s. ]
VILJUJSK
[ There is a marked increase in the annual mean temperature since about 1990. ]
VERHOJANSK
[ There are much missing data, particularly in the 1990s and 2000s. ]
ANADYR
[ There are much missing data, particularly in the 1900s, 1910s, 1990s and 2000s. ]
CONCLUSIONS AND COMMENTS
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Similar temperature trend patterns occurred at all nine stations.
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At six stations long periods of rising temperatures occurred between about 1900-1950 and 1970-2019, with decreasing temperatures between about 1950-1969. At Kanin Nos, Vytegra and Anadyr there was no marked increase in temperature in the 1900-1950 period. The warming period between about 1970 and 2019 is not unique.
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At four of the nine stations (Vytegra, Viljujsk, Verhojansk and Anadyr) the recent temperatures (since about 2000) were significantly warmer than in earlier decades around 1920-1940. At the five other stations the recent temperatures were similar to those around the 1930s.
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The trends of the summer and winter temperatures were similar to the annual trends.
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The temperature trends show a cyclical pattern with periods of around 80 years. This effect is more pronounced at some stations (eg Salehard) than at other stations (eg Vytegra).
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The linear trend slope over the period 1970-2019 varies between three and six times the linear trend slope over the full period of records. It is therefore misleading to base trend estimates only on records over a shorter period (such as since the 1960s).
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Despite the above comments it is appreciated that many locations in the arctic and sub-arctic have experienced sustained warming temperatures over the past 50 years. This warming has had a significant effect on the local environment and population.
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If history repeats itself (which is always hard to predict) a correction period of decreasing temperatures, similar to that of 1950-1970, is possible in the near future!
REFERENCES AND LINKS
Do you have any comments on the above? brigun (at) westnet.com.au
THE AUTHOR
This article was written by Brian Gunter Narooma, NSW, Australia. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow of data for the planning of major water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Published by
Brian Gunter
Retired civil engineer.
Particularly interested in climate trends.
View all posts by Brian Gunter
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