This post refers to my analysis of recorded monthly mean temperature trends at Luqa in Malta. The station was established in 1853. The analysis used raw data (as recorded, without any adjustments) as published by KNMI (the Dutch Meteorological Institute). Polynomial curves of best fit were added to the plots.
Luqa is a town in southern Malta. It is located about 6 km from the ocean.
Over the 1853-2016 period (a period of 164 years) the years are 90% complete.
Luqa has a mediterranean climate, with mild winters and warm-hot summers. Mean monthly temperatures vary from 12.6 degC (in February) to 26.4 degC (in August). Extreme monthly mean temperatures recorded are 9.5 degC (in February 1853) to 29.3 degC (in August 1999).
Mean, Maximum and Minimum Monthly Temperatures
Plots are shown below for annual mean temperature and the monthly mean temperature for each of the 12 months. A polynomial trendline was fitted to each graph. A comparison of the monthy trendlines are also presented. It should be noted that the trendlines (in red) can sometimes be misleading at either end of the series as the line is very dependent on the temperature values in individual years (this sensitivity does not occur away from the start and end of the series).
Annual Mean Temperatures
Monthly Mean Temperature Trendlines
- The plots show strong cyclical monthly trendlines in all months, with Highs in about 1870, 1940 and 2010 and a Lows in about 1900 and 1970.
- The monthly mean temperatures around 2000-2010 are between zero and 1 degC greater than in around 1940.
- The average long-term monthly mean temperature trend is about +0.2 degC/century,
- In all months there is a peak or plateau in the temperature trends around 2000-2010.
- There have been no alarming trends in temperatures in recent decades.
Luqa is one of 257 stations, worldwide, for which I have analysed long-term temperature trends. The analyses at 50 representative stations are summarised in the blog post: world-50-temperatures
Please let me know what you think of my analyses. email@example.com
This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma, NSW, Australia. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.