This post refers to my analysis of recorded monthly mean temperature trends at the small town of Salehard in northwestern Siberia, Russia. The station was established in 1882. The analysis used raw data (as recorded, without any adjustments) as published by KNMI (the Dutch Meteorological Institute). Polynomial curves of best fit were added to the plots.
The town of Salehard is located on the Polar Circle (66.5 degN) on the banks of the Ob River, about 200 km south of the coast of the Kara Sea.
Over the 1882-2016 period (a period of 135 years) the years are 92% complete.
Salehard has a sub-Arctic climate with short, mild summers and severely cold winters. Mean monthly temperatures vary from -23.9 degC (in January) to +14.2 degC (in July). Extreme monthly mean temperatures recorded are -36.3 degC (in January 1885) to +19.4 degC (in July 2016).
Mean, Maximum and Minimum Monthly Temperatures
Plots are shown below for annual mean temperature and the monthly mean temperature for each of the 12 months. A polynomial trendline was fitted to each graph. A comparison of the monthy trendlines are also presented. It should be noted that the trendlines (in red) can sometimes be misleading at either end of the series as the line is very dependent on the temperature values in individual years (this sensitivity does not occur away from the start and end of the series).
Annual Mean Temperatures
Monthly Mean Temperature Trendlines
- The plots show weak cyclical monthly trendlines in most months with peaks around 1930 and 2010 and troughs around 1890 and 1970, a cycle period of about 80 years.
- The peak monthly trendlines around 1930 are generally of similar magnitude to those around 2010, except for May and June when the 2000 temperatures were about 2 degC warmer than in 1930.
- A peak or plateau in the trendline around 2010 is observed to occur in most months, but not in May and June.
- The average temperature trends since 1882 are about +1.0 degC/century (+1.2 degC/century for trend peaks and +1.5 degC/century for trend troughs).
- There are no alarming increases in the temperature trendlines in recent decades, with May and June being apparent outlier months.
Salehard is one of 257 stations, worldwide, for which I have analysed long-term temperature trends. The analyses at 50 representative stations are summarised in the blog post: world-50-temperatures
Please let me know what you think of my analyses. email@example.com
This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma, NSW, Australia. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.