Central Asia Temperatures

Published data were used to analyse the long-term annual temperature trends at eleven locations located in central Asia.   Stations were located in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Krygyzstan.   Similarities in the trends for individual stations enabled a comprehensive trend to be established for the whole region.

The data used were all from the website of KNMI (the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute). Only raw data were used (ie as originally recorded, without any adjustments). Data were only used from stations located in rural areas or in small towns so as to avoid the possible influence of urbanisation on the temperatures.

centralasiamap

table-centralasia

The periods of the data ranged from 73 years to 134 years of complete annual data.  The earliest record, at Fort Sevcenko, commencing in 1848.

The plots shown below are of the annual mean temperatures at each of the eleven locations. On each plot a polynomial “best fit” trendline has been added. It should be noted that the trendlines near each extremity (ie near the start and end of the records) are quite sensitive to individual data points, whereas trendlines within the main body of the record are much more stable and reliable.

 

COMPARISON OF TRENDLINES

Annual Mean Temperature Trends

[ The basis of these trendlines can be seen from the analyses for the eleven individual stations – see next section ]

centralasia-trends

 

Annual Mean Temperature Residual Trends

[ The individual trend-lines have been adjusted by constant amounts to be approximately zero at trend troughs around 1950-1960 ]

centralasia-residual

 

ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR INDIVIDUAL STATIONS

Fort Sevcenko (Kazakhstan) 1848-2012

fortsevcenko

 

Uil (Kazakhstan) 1925-2015

uil

 

Aralskoe More (Kazakhstan) 1905-2015

aralskoemore

 

Kazalinsk (Kazakhstan) 1881-2015

kazalinsk

 

Panfilov (Kazakhstan) 1917-2015

panfilov

 

Kokpekty (Kazakhstan) 1894-2015

kokpekty

 

Cimbaj (Uzbekistan) 1926-2015

cimbaj

 

Tamdy (Uzbekistan) 1889-2015

tamdy

 

Kizyl-Avart (Turkmenistan) 1883-2015

kizylarvat

 

Bajram-Ali (Turkmenistan) 1889-2015

bajramali

 

Naryn (Kyrgyzstan) 1886-2015

naryn

 

 

DISCUSSION AND COMMENTS

  • The data analysed was limited to that which were available on the KNMI website.
  • The annual mean temperature trend-lines for the eleven stations are similar.
  • A well-defined cyclical pattern in the trend-line is apparent at all of the stations since about 1950, but is less evident for earlier years.  A Low occurred in around 1950-1960, and a High occurred around 2010.
  • The ten stations with data since 2010 showed evidence that a High (or at least a plateau) occurred around 2010
  • The ~2010 “High” was generally about 1.5-2.0 deg C higher that that in ~1950.

 

CONCLUSIONS

  • The consistency of the annual mean temperature trend-lines of the eleven widely separated stations provides support for the good quality of the data and the conclusions drawn from the analysis.
  • There is evidence of temperature rises of around 1.5-2.0 deg C since 1950, but that a cyclical peak occurred around 2010.

 

The Author:

This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma, NSW. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Bureau of Meteorology.

 

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