Published data were used to analyse the long-term annual temperature trends at ten locations located in north Europe. Stations were located in Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia. Similarities in the trends for individual stations enabled a comprehensive trend to be established for the whole region.
The data used were all from the website of KNMI (the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute). Only raw data were used (ie as originally recorded, without any adjustments). Data were only used from stations located in rural areas or in small towns so as to avoid the possible influence of urbanisation on the temperatures.
The periods of the data ranged from 55 years to 176 years(the earliest record, at Vardo, commencing in 1829).
The plots shown below are of the annual mean temperatures at each of the ten locations. On each plot a polynomial “best fit” trendline has been added. It should be noted that the trendlines near each extremity (ie near the start and end of the records) are quite sensitive to individual data points, whereas trendlines within the main body of the record are much more stable and reliable.
COMPARISON OF TRENDLINES
Annual Mean Temperature Trends
[ The basis of these trendlines can be seen from the analyses for the ten individual stations – see next section ]
Annual Mean Temperature Residual Trends
[ The individual trend-lines have been adjusted by constant amounts to be approximately zero at trend peaks around 1940-1950 ]
ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR INDIVIDUAL STATIONS
Vardo (Norway) 1829-2015
Tromso (Norway) 1856-2015
Bodo (Norway) 1868-2015
Ferder (Norway) 1885-1955
Haparanda (Sweden) 1860-2009
Visby (Sweden) 1949-2015
Sodankyla (Finland) 1908-2015
Jokioinen (Finland) 1957-2015
Kanin Nos (Russia) 1915-2015
Vytegra (Russia) 1881-2015
DISCUSSION AND COMMENTS
- The data analysed was limited to that which were available on the KNMI website.
- The annual mean temperature trend-lines for the ten stations are remarkably similar.
- A well-defined cyclical pattern in the trend-line is apparent at all of the stations. A Low occurred in around 1970-1980, and Highs occurred in around 1940-1950 and around 2010, indicating a cyclical wavelength of about 70 years.
- Due to incomplete data during the past decade it is difficult at fice stations to be definite about a trend peak around 2010.
- The ~2010 “peak” was generally about 0.7-1.5 deg C higher that that in ~1940.
- The ~1980 trough was generally about 0.1-0.5 deg C less than the peak in ~1940.
- The consistency of the annual mean temperature trend-lines of the ten widely separated stations provides support for the good quality of the data and the conclusions drawn from the analysis.
- There is evidence of significant temperature rises in the past 20 years, but is is unclear (due to badly broken records) if a trend peak occurs around 2010.
This article was written by Brian Gunter of Narooma, NSW. In his previous life Brian was an engineering hydrologist involved over many years in the analysis of rainfall and river flow data for the planning of water resources projects in Australia, Asia and Africa. In recent years he has been one of the Marine Rescue NSW (previously Royal Volunteer Coastal Patrol) volunteer weather observers who operate the Narooma station for the Bureau of Meteorology.